March Madness is all about the upset: David taking down Goliath and shocking the world. But since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a No. 16 seed has never defeated a No. 1 seed, going 0-128. According to FiveThirtyEight probability data, we should have seen three 16 vs. 1 upsets by now. There have been some close calls, but why hasn't it happened yet? What are the odds and determining factors? Will we ever see The Ultimate Upset?
Are 16 seeds due?