22 February 2013 10:09 AM, PST | The Guardian - Film News | See recent The Guardian - Film News news »

The man who correctly called the outcome of the 2012 presidential election has applied his methods to the Oscar race – and Spielberg and Affleck will like what they see

If you only believe one set of Oscar predictions in the run-up to Sunday's Academy Awards, Nate Silver's may just be the most reliable bet. The respected American statistician and founder of the website FiveThirtyEight.com today published his list of the likely winners in the six main categories. And his methodology points to a good night for both Argo and Lincoln.

Silver's findings largely support the current bookies' odds. He tips Argo to win the best picture prize and Daniel Day-Lewis to be named best actor for his role in Lincoln. He goes on to suggest that Silver Linings Playbook's Jennifer Lawrence has the slight edge over Jessica Chastain in the best actress race. Silver has Les Miserables chanteuse Anne Hathaway »

- Xan Brooks

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