Ben’s Oscar® Forecast… and the winner is – Jan 18

Since the 85th Academy Awards nominations were announced, Lincoln has emerged as the tentative frontrunner among a plurality of headline writers, bloggers, and oddsmakers. This was fueled in large part by the fact that Steven Spielberg’s Civil War epic garnered 12 nominations, the most of any film. But does receiving the most nominations really mean that a movie is most likely to win Best Picture? The short answer is yes – 2/3 of the time. But for movie buffs and math nerds, here is the longer answer. Over the 84 years of Oscars, the movie that received the most nominations (including ties for first place) among the Best Picture nominees went on to take the top prize in 56 years, exactly 2/3 of the time. The higher a movie ranks in nominations among its Best Picture competitors, the more likely it is to win: 85% of winners came in the top two in nominations, and 93% of
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