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Best Oscar predictions: Mark Harris, Dave Karger and Peter Travers score 92%

Congratulations to Mark Harris (Grantland), Dave Karger (Fandango), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) for topping all Experts at predicting this year's Academy Awards. Each of them were at a 92% accuracy rate, missing just two categories apiece. As for the misses, Harris had "Get a Horse" (instead of "Mr. Hublot") for Animated Short and "The Voorman Problem" (instead of "Helium") for Live Action Short. Karger had "American Hustle" for Original Screenplay (losing to "Her") and "Get a Horse." Travers had "Feral" for Animated Short and "The Voorman Problem." After our three winners, there was then a seven-way tie at 88% (21 of 24 categories) between Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Tim Hayne (Moviefone), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), and Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert). Following them wa...
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Top Oscarologists: Mark Harris (Grantland), Dave Karger (Fandango), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) score 92%

Congratulations to Mark Harris (Grantland), Dave Karger (Fandango), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) for topping all Experts at predicting this year's Academy Awards. Each of them were at a 92% accuracy rate, missing just two categories apiece. As for the misses, Harris had "Get a Horse" (instead of "Mr. Hublot") for Animated Short and "The Voorman Problem" (instead of "Helium") for Live Action Short. Karger had "American Hustle" for Original Screenplay (losing to "Her") and "Get a Horse." Travers had "Feral" for Animated Short and "The Voorman Problem." After our three winners, there was then a seven-way tie at 88% (21 of 24 categories) between Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Tim Hayne (Moviefone), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), and Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert). Following them wa...
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Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) tops all Experts predicting Independent Spirit winners

Gold Derby's very own Paul Sheehan was the best Expert with an outstanding 86% correct on his 2013 Independent Spirit Awards winner predictions. 12 film journalists took part in this year's contest. In second place were Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly) and Steve Pond (The Wrap) with 79%. There is then a large six-way tie at 72% right between Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Tariq Khan (Fox News)  Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). The final three spots are Keith Simanton (IMDb) at 65%, Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert) at 58%, and Claudia Puig (USA Today) at 50%. Click here for a breakdown of all top scorers in our leaderboard. To see the pundits' original predictions, click here. Related: See how you did predicting the Spirit Awards winners. -Break- The Experts collectively were perfe...
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Final Oscar predictions smackdown: Tom O'Neil vs. Tariq Khan (podcast)

  "It's Oscar Armageddon!" I shout at my fave pundit nemesis Tariq Khan as we face our final battle over predictions. Last year I pummeled him mercilessly when he scooted out onto a thin, shaky limb for Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour") and, of course, I turned out to be right. Now he blasts me gleefully over my Leo DiCaprio pick. I'm not ruffled.I feel (kinda, maybe a little, sorta) confident that Tariq'll be gobbling Oscar crow late Sunday night. But Tariq really hits his mark here when he attacks my reasoning for dumping Lupita Nyongo for Jennifer Lawrence. It's a great gotcha moment in this podcast. Uh-oh. Should I switch back to Lupita while there's still time? Ummmm .... naw. Bottom line: I sense the same growing momentum for Jlaw in the home stretch as I did those years when Marion Cotillard and "Braveheart" ambushed the derby in the home stretch. See Tariq's predix here,
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28 Oscar Experts predict 'Frozen' will win Best Song, two favor U2

28 Oscar Experts predict 'Frozen' will win Best Song, two favor U2
All but two of our 30 Oscar Experts are predicting that "Let It Go" from "Frozen" will win Best Song at the Oscars on Sunday. That support gives first-time nominees Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez leading odds of 2/13 to win an Academy Award. If that happens, Robert will attain Egot status having already won at the Emmys, Grammys, and Tonys previously. He would be the 12th person to join that exclusive club and also, at age 39, the youngest by several years. Rita Moreno completed her Egot at age 45. Tariq Khan (Fox News) and Michael Musto (Gawker, Out.com) are the only Experts predicting "Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom" to prevail. That song sits in second place with odds of 10/1 of pulling off an upset. The four members of rock band U2 (Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen) are nominated for the second time (the other was for
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Oscar Experts split on Best Documentary: 19 predict '20 Feet From Stardom,' nine say 'Act of Killing'

Oscar Experts split on Best Documentary: 19 predict '20 Feet From Stardom,' nine say 'Act of Killing'
Nineteen of our 30 Oscar Experts are predicting that the "20 Feet from Stardom," Morgan Neville's music-filled account of the careers of backup singers, will win Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars. That support gives it leading odds of 2/3 to become the second music-themed film in a row to win this race, after last year's "Searching for Sugar Man." Those Experts backing its bids are:  Thelma Adams (Yahoo!) Kyle Buchanan (Vulture) Mike Cidoni (AP) Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) Scott Feinberg (THR) Pete Hammond  (Deadline) Mark Harris (Grantland) Dave Karger (Fandango) Tariq Khan (Fox News) Steve Pond (The Wrap) Claudia Puig (USA Today) Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) Keith Simanton (IMDb) Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert....
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Oscars Best Picture: 23 Experts predict '12 Years a Slave,' 7 for 'Gravity'

Oscars Best Picture: 23 Experts predict '12 Years a Slave,' 7 for 'Gravity'
Of our 30 Oscarologists, 23 of them are predicting that "12 Years a Slave" will win Best Picture while seven back the bid by "Gravity."  This surge in support gives "12 Years a Slave" leading odds of 4 to 9 while "Gravity" is at 10/3. Of the other seven nominees, only "American Hustle" (50/1) has odds better than 100/1. The 23 Experts predicting "12 Years a Slave" to prevail are: ; Thelma Adams (Yahoo!) Michael Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) Kyle Buchanan (Vulture) Mike Cidoni (AP) Scott Feinberg (THR) Thom Geier (EW) Mark Harris (Grantland) Tim Hayne (Moviefone) Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) Dave Karger (Fandango) Tariq Khan (Fox News) Mary Milliken (Reuters) Michael Musto (Gawker, Out.com) Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!) Claudia Puig (USA Today) Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) Anne T...
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Anne Thompson tops all Experts predicting BAFTA film awards winners

Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) was the best Expert with 80% correct on her 2013 BAFTA Film Awards winner predictions. 11 film journalists took part in this year's contest. In second place was Gold Derby's own Tom O'Neil with 70%. He was followed by five Experts at 65% -- Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Tied with 60% each were Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) and Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert). Claudia Puig (USA Today) scored 55%, and Tariq Khan (Fox News) was at 50%. Click here for a breakdown of all top scorers in our leaderboard. To see the pundits' original predictions, click here. Related: See how you did predicting BAFTA Film Awards winners. -Break- For actual totals in several interesting categories, the Experts had a 100% track record predicting &qu...
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Oscar predictions podcast: Tom O'Neil vs. Tariq Khan

Tariq Khan and I have become notorious for our ferocious battles over Oscar predictions. Our podcasts are usually packed with outrage, insults and sometimes even a few award insights, but this derby season, truth be told, everything seems a bit dull. Tariq and I agree on far too, too many races. But -- you'll be happy to know -- that still hasn't dulled our gladiatorial spirit for battle. Tune in below. To follow along as we tick through the categories, see Tariq's predictions here, mine here.
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Oscar Experts: '12 Years a Slave' pulls ahead in Best Picture race

Oscar Experts: '12 Years a Slave' pulls ahead in Best Picture race
  Our Experts continue to add their predictions for the Oscars and the tide has shifted strongly towards "12 Years a Slave" over "American Hustle" to win Best Picture. On Tuesday morning, the vote was six to five in favor of "12 Years." By the end of the day, it had picked up three more votes. And, at midday Wednesday,  it has a dozen Oscarologists expecting it to take the top Oscar on March 2.  This surge in support gives "12 Years a Slave" leading odds of 8 to 15 (up from 8/11) while "American Hustle" is now at 10/3 (down from 2/1).  The 12 Experts predicting "12 Years a Slave" to prevail are:  Michael Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) Mark Harris (Grantland) Dave Karger (Fandango) Tariq Khan (Fox News) -- he switched from "American Hustle" Michael Musto (Gawker, Out.com) Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) Steve Pond (The Wrap) Christopher...
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Oscar Experts: 'American Hustle' vs. '12 Years a Slave' for Best Picture

Our first wave of Oscarologists have weighed in with their predictions as to what will win Best Picture. They are divided nine to five in favor of "12 Years a Slave" over "American Hustle." That extra support gives it the edge in the odds at 8/11 versus 2/1.  The nine Experts predicting "12 Years a Slave" to prevail on March 2 are:  Michael Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) Mark Harris (Grantland) Michael Musto (Gawker, Out.com) Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) Steve Pond (The Wrap) Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) The five who favor "American Hustle" are: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) Thom Geier (EW) Tariq Khan (Fox News) Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) "12 Years a Slave" is coming off a great week, winning t...
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Best Experts' Oscar predictions: Scott Feinberg and Glenn Whipp

Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter) and Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times) reaped the top score (76%) among the 30 Experts predicting Oscar nominations in all 24 categories at Gold Derby. See our score leaderboards here. See the Experts' predix here. Other best scores: 73% -- Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) 71% -- Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) 70% -- Pete Hammond (Deadline) 68% -- Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) 67% -- Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) 66% -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out, Gawker) 65% -- Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Tim Hayne (MovieFone), Tariq Khan (Fox News) 64% -- Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) 62% -- Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert) 61% -- Claudia Puig (USA Today), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) 60% -- Keith Simanton (IMDb) -Break- 21 Categories 74% -- Guy Lodge (Hitfix), Steve Pond (TheWrap) 73% ...
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Oprah? No-prah! Did she peak too soon this Oscar derby?

Oprah? No-prah! Did she peak too soon this Oscar derby?
Oprah? No-prah! The Oscar nominations were revealed Thursday, and Oprah Winfrey was shockingly snubbed as Best Supporting Actress for "The Butler." left chart) and even prompted Tariq Khan (Fox News) to write up five reasons why Oprah was a lock for the Oscar win. So what happened? It could be that Oscar voters were so sick of being told what to do that they decided to go their own way here in the Supporting Actress race. Well, "go their own way" as far as throwing Oprah off their telecast, as the other four nominees predicted by Experts as of yesterday still made the cut (see above-right chart). Lupita Nyongo ("12 Years a Slave"), Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle"), June Squibb ("Nebraska") and Julia Roberts ("August: Osage County") al...
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Tom O'Neil scores best Golden Globe predictions among Experts

Tom O'Neil scores best Golden Globe predictions among Experts
Gold Derby editor Tom O'Neil reaped the highest score (79%) among the 25 Experts predicting the film races at the Golden Globes.  Next up in second place with 72% were Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter) and Dave Karger (Fandango). See our score leaderboards here. See the Experts' predix here. Eight people tied for third place with 65% accuracy: Thelma Adams (thelmaadams.com), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Finishing next were the following five people at 58%: Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Guy Lodge (HitFix), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), and Susan Wloszczyna (Roger Ebert) The next group was at 50% correct: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo Movies), Claudia Puig (USA Today), and...
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Golden Globes predictions smackdown -- Tom O'Neil vs. Tariq Khan

Last derby season my outrageous, knock-down podcasts with Tariq Khan gained a huge cult following. That's because Tariq and I really know our stuff and love a good fight -- the knee-capping, throat-throatling variety that leaves blood on the floor and the Coliseum crowd cheering for more. We also laugh hysterically -- especially at each other's predictions. And this year Tariq's picks for the Golden Globes couldn't be funnier. Lupita Nyongo ("12 Years a Slave") for Best Supporting Actress -- ha, ha, ha! Oh, come on, Tariq! It's obvious that Jennifer Lawrence or Julia Roberts have that Globe in da bag. What do you think, dear reader? Check out Tariq's predix here. Mine here. Then listen to our chat and give us your predix below. -Break-  
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Here's how Sandra Bullock ('Gravity') can pull off Oscar upset

Here's how Sandra Bullock ('Gravity') can pull off Oscar upset
According to the 27 Experts polled by Gold Derby, the Oscar frontrunner for Best Actress is Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine"), as Tariq Khan pointed out. But is that really true? I'm skeptical because lying in wait is Sandra Bullock ("Gravity"), who I think is perfectly positioned for an upset. In some ways, Blanchett gives exactly the kind of performance the academy loves: big, boozy, and emotionally unhinged. But it's also caustic in a way they don't usually go for. As a socialite who loses everything, she's all downward spiral and no uplift, and even if we sympathize with her and her damaged psyche, we never really root for her. Bullock, on the other hand, plays one of the most heroic characters of the year, a stranded astronaut using her wits to get safely back to Earth. She's not as broadly emotional as Blanchett, and there are a lot of special effects in "Gravity" competing for attention,
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Oscars Predictions Battle: Tariq Khan vs. Tom O'Neil (Everybody, duck!) - Podcast

Last year Tariq Khan (Fox News) and I clashed ferociously over Oscars predictions. I won. Now Tariq is hellbent for revenge and a chance to redeem himself. Will he rally? Or will he be crushed again by my brilliant prognostication? Check out his predix here. Mine here. See them side by side. -Break-   Related: Video: Chris Rosen (HuffPo) and Tom O'Neil duel over Oscars predix Podcast: Thelma Adams (Yahoo) vs. Tom O'Neil  
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Oscars Experts: 'Gravity' helmer Alfonso Cuaron surges ahead of Steve McQueen ('12 Years a Slave')

Oscars Experts: 'Gravity' helmer Alfonso Cuaron surges ahead of Steve McQueen ('12 Years a Slave')
While "12 Years a Slave" maintains a solid lead over "Gravity" among our 25 Experts predicting Best Picture (17 - 4), its helmer --  Steve McQueen -- has lost his lead over Alfonso Cuaron in the race for Best Director despite winning over the New York Film Critics Circle. Ten Experts now back the bid by McQueen while 15 are supporting Cuaron. That is a jump from just one week ago when the score was 13 to 10 in McQueen's favor. McQueen's odds of winning have dropped to 23/10 from 9 to 4 while Cuaron's have risen from 23/10 to 19/10.   Team Cuaron: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy ...
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Oprah, get that speech ready for the Golden Globes

Oprah, get that speech ready for the Golden Globes
While Oprah Winfrey is locked in a battle at the Oscars with "12 Years a Slave" newcomer Lupita Nyongo, she is certain to win the Supporting Actress Golden Globe for her scene-stealing performance in "The Butler." will prevail this time around. Seven of our nine Experts have Nyongo in second place: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Out),   Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Keith Simanton (IMDb) Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) has Jennifer Lawrence ("American Hustle") in the runner-up position ahead of Nyongo while Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) has both June Squibb ("Nebraska") and Margo Martindale (&qu...
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Experts' updated Oscars predix: Robert Redford regains lead over Chiwetel Ejiofor for Best Actor

Experts' updated Oscars predix: Robert Redford regains lead over Chiwetel Ejiofor for Best Actor
  Just two weeks ago, Chiwetel Ejiofor held a slim lead in the Best Actor race for his performance as the title character in "12 Years a Slave." Despite that film doing well in limited release, several of our Experts have shifted back to Robert Redford for his solo effort as a stranded sailor in "All is Lost."   A dozen Experts now back the bid by Redford: Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Mark Harris (Grantland), Guy Lodge (HitFix), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Keith Simanton (IMDb),  Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times). Nine Experts still expect Ejiofor to prevail: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News),&nb...
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