Summer Box Office: The Top 15 Contenders
With so many movies vying for your attention at the box office over the summer, some are bound to be hits, and others misses. What's going to come out on top this season? The man behind BoxOfficeMojo.com, Brandon Gray, makes his predictions for this year's summer movies -- which ones will be the hits, and why.
1. Toy Story 3 ($500M)Back in 1995, Toy Story was the first computer-animated feature and generated a sensational $191.8 million. Four years later, Toy Story 2 hit it out of the park as well, garnering $245.9 million. More than ten years later, computer animation isn't as special as it once was, due to the glut of CGI since then, but Pixar's universal storytelling continues to resonate. Toy Story 3 would be huge on name alone, but it doesn't look like Pixar is resting on its laurels. Plus they have a new ticket-price increasing toy to play with: 3D. |
2. Iron Man 2 ($425M)Like Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2 will cash in on its brand name and then some. Moviegoers mostly loved the first Iron Man, which raked in $318.4 million two years ago. When the first movie has banked such a tremendous amount of good will, the second can fare even better at the box office (The Dark Knight, Pirates of the Caribbean, X-Men, etc.) Iron Man 2, which presents many of the original's qualities in its trailers, should get an additional boost from being the first event picture of the summer. |
3. Shrek Forever After ($270M)Toy Story 3 will be the welcome return of an old friend. The same may not be true for Shrek Forever After. Shrek 2 remains the highest-grossing animated movie of all time at over $440 million, but Shrek the Third cooled to $323 million. With its pop culture references and gimmicks, the Shrek series isn't as timeless as Toy Story, so the downward trajectory should continue. |
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4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($250M)While Iron Man 2 is aiming for that second-movie bump, the Twilight franchise may have already experienced it with New Moon, which grossed $296.6 million compared to the first movie's $192.8 million. Significant drop-offs are the norm as was the case with the Pirates of the Caribbean, Back to the Future and The Matrix franchises. Eclipse has one advantage: it's based on what appears to be many fans' favorite Twilight novel. |
5. Inception ($200M)Director Christopher Nolan's follow-up to The Dark Knight gets the same mid-July release as that mega-blockbuster and it appears to mine similar philosophical themes. While it doesn't have Batman's built-in fanbase, Inception has a visually-striking and thrilling trailer that recalls The Matrix and other mind-benders, and it's well-positioned to be very popular in its own right. |
6. Salt ($170M)In its trailers, Salt comes off as a female version of the Bourne franchise, and that's a good thing, given how popular those Bourne movies were. The picture appears to have a crackerjack Fugitive-like action-thriller plot and features harrowing stunts. Plus it stars Angelina Jolie, who is a credible draw in action movies (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Wanted, etc.), though not much else. |
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7. Knight and Day ($150M)This has been promoted as a slick and fun action-comedy romp with star power to spare, courtesy of Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz. This seems like a return to the type of movie in which audiences want to see Mr. Cruise, and a solid run should be in order. This is clearly gunning for the same type of audience as Mr. & Mrs. Smith, though it would be surprising if it is as popular. |
8. The A-Team ($145M)Another slick action-comedy picture, and the hope is that it will be supercharged by its 1980s television roots. How much the A-Team brand resonates today is still a question mark, but this movie still appears to have enough going for it beyond that brand to find a sizable audience. It opens on the same date as The Karate Kid for an '80s flashback weekend. |
9. Sex and the City 2 ($140M)Two years ago, the first Sex and the City movie was an event of sorts, serving fans of the television series after four years of pent-up demand, Two years later, it will be a challenge to make the sequel as special when it's effectively the second episode of the movie series. The first movie wrapped up the storylines. The trailer suggests that the girls are going on a trip: the marketing will have to do better than that to repeat or improve on the first movie's success. |
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10. Grown Ups ($130M)Featuring Adam Sandler and his cronies Kevin James, Chris Rock, Rob Schneider and David Spade, this comedy should at least find Sandler's typical audience, but its box office is likely to be less than the sum of its parts. Based on the teaser trailer, Sandler and company seems to be aiming for more of a family slapstick comedy than Sandler's usual wacky and crude fare. |
11. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time ($125M)This Jerry Bruckheimer adaptation of a video game aims to be the next Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl or at least the next Mummy. It certainly possesses a lot of special effects in its marketing, but it lacks character and story, and its Arabia/Aladdin-like setting may prove more distancing than beguiling. |
12. The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($120M)Loosely inspired by the Fantasia segment of the same name, this picture looks like an action comedy version of Harry Potter in its marketing. Lacking Potter's built-in audience, one shouldn't expect tremendous initial grosses, despite being released mid-July like the last two Potter movies. This is another Jerry Bruckheimer production for Disney and targets not just parents and their children but teens and young adults. |
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13. The Last Airbender ($115M)This one seems mostly geared to the fans of the "Avatar: The Last Airbender" cartoon series, but it does dazzle with special effects and stunts in its marketing thus far. It's just that it may seem too foreign to the uninitated, and similar movies like Pokemon, Mortal Kombat, The Forbidden Kingdom and Dragonball Evolution have not reached blockbuster status. |
14. Marmaduke ($115M)This talking-dog picture based on the comic strip is another entry in the successful talking-animal family comedy sub-genre, which includes hits like Alvin and the Chipmunks, Garfield and Beverly Hills Chihuahua. Marmaduke seems to hit the right notes for this type of picture and should do well. |
15. Robin Hood ($110M)This umpteenth version of Robin Hood takes the dreaded "second weekend of May" slot, opening in the wake of Iron Man 2. The movie's marketing has trumpeted the Gladiator connection with director Ridley Scott and star Russell Crowe, but this is clearly a guy's movie and it will be difficult to strike the same broad chord as Gladiator did ten years ago. Also, King Arthur also tried a gritty re-imagining of a popular story and disappointed. |
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