Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
	Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

With the Golden Globe in hand and a nomination under foot, Eddie Murphy has emerged as the favorite to take home the award for his dynamic turn as James "Thunder" Early in Dreamgirls. We're not so sure. It's a deserving role, though what cascading effect the film's omission as a Best Picture nominee will have in the other categories remains to be seen. With Jennifer Hudson a good bet to take home the statue for Supporting Actress (hers is too good a story NOT to be acknowledged), the Academy may choose to honor her (and a song or costume, perhaps), and in effect, the film, which could leave Murphy singing the blues.

On the other hand, if you're looking for an underdog, that would be former child star Jackie Earle Haley, who wowed critics (if not audiences) in Little Children with his role as a pedophile returned to his hometown. Feted by the New York and San Francisco critics, we nevertheless would be more than suprised if the Academy had the, uh ... nerve to honor Haley.

Previous nominee Djimon Hounsou won the National Board of Review award for Blood Diamond so it wasn't a surprise to hear his name among the nominees early Tuesday morning. It would be a surprise if he won though, as Hounsou will have had to overcome the film's bad press and poor grosses, to say nothing of the competition.

Mark Wahlberg, whose universally praised performance in The Departed was worthy of a nod, could win, though all of the drama centered around this drama is focused on the Best Picture category and some guy named Scorsese. Walberg's chances? Too bad they don't give out silver statues.

Finally, it was great to see Alan Arkin nominated for his wonderful turn as the profane, strung-out yet adoring grandfather in Little Miss Sunshine, and don't be shocked if the thrice-nominated (never won), 76-year-old Arkin's name is called from the podium. Why? Because he's 76, this is his third nomination (his last nod was 38 years ago), and he's never won. Seriously, he's exactly the type the Academy loves to honor - an actor's actor who's 'paid his dues', in effect, by never winning an Academy Award. We think that changes February 25th.