Martin Scorsese, The Departed
	Martin Scorsese, The Departed

If Martin Scorsese is ever going to win an Oscar, it's gotta be this year. The 2007 Best Director fight has all the makings of a Scorsese vs. Eastwood rematch, with both directors nominated, and early indicators favor the pride of Queens, New York. Marty and Clint faced off at the 2005 Oscars, where The Aviator ultimately lost to Million Dollar Baby. But this time around, Eastwood's fumble is Scorsese's potential gain (more on that in a sec), as The Departed has become the unlikely box-office hit/Oscar contender in a year that saw a lot of hotly anticipated films (All the King's Men, A Good Year, and, um, Flags of Our Fathers) flop with audiences and critics alike. Add to Scorsese's pro column a Golden Globe win and, finally, a Directors Guild Award.

Though few are ruling out Eastwood, who, despite having an uneven year with his two-part WWII project, saw his Japanese-language drama Letters from Iwo Jima grab a surprise Best Picture nomination, a Golden Globe for Foreign Language film, and earn best film honors from the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics. We say Eastwood's nomination, in addition to being well-deserved, is also a tacit acknowledgement of his one-two effort with both Iwo Jima and the less successful Flags of Our Fathers. While Scorsese's probably sweating, we bet Eastwood is pleased with the recognition but not angsty about winning a third Oscar.

Who's Scorsese's real competition? We lay our money on Golden Globe nominated Alejandro González Iñárritu, whose Babel is the surprise dark horse-turned-leading contender. Iñárritu was up for the DGA top prize, and Babel was the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture - Drama, but the director himself hasn't picked up a boatload of awards. Still, Oscar loves a first-time nominated director, and Babel's multilayered story makes it look a little bit like this year's Crash.

Stephen Frears in something of a stealth candidate in this category, as The Queen is waging a royal campaign (Miramax still has the savvy, even without Bob and Harvey at the helm) that resulted in six nominations, including Frears' second nomination (in over 15 years!). Though the attention is on Helen Mirren's reported lock on the Best Actress category, Frears and the film are basking in the Academy's love as well. Nice recognition, but this would be a true upset is Frears made off with the prize.

Frears is joined by fellow Brit Paul Greengrass. Even though United 93 was shut out at the Golden Globes, the film, which was released back in April, has garnered positive if sobering reviews for its depiction of the ill-fated September 11th flight. Winning the New York Film Critics award first put this drama on the awards map, and the fact that it's available on DVD could mean underdog momentum a la Crash. Still, United 93 scored only one other nomination - for Editing - so we say chances are slim-to-none for Greengrass.

Let us also pause a moment for the massive snubbing of poor Bill Condon, who we suspect may have bought himself Bloody Mary makings in anticipation of Oscar nomination announcement morning, considering at one time it was thought Dreamgirls was the film that would not be denied. Hopefully his Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar for Gods and Monsters is still shiny as ever.

This rest of this year's outcasts were dark horses of two different shades: "Insider" for the indie tag-team of Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine, which scored a Best Picture nomination), Todd Field (Little Children), and Pedro Almodóvar (Volver); and "Outsider" for Ryan Fleck (Half Nelson) and Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck for (The Lives of Others). The Insiders all enjoyed extensive press coverage and were backed by spendy For Your Consideration campaigns, though the Outsiders would have made the race that much more interesting to follow.