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from 21 (2008)
Micky Rosa: He says, "Ben, do you want to stay with door number one or go with door number two?". Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice?
Ben Campbell: Yeah.
Micky Rosa: Well wait, the host knows where the car is. So how do you know he's not trying to play a trick on you - trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat?
Ben Campbell: Well I wouldn't really care. I mean, my answer's based on statistics - based on variable change.
Micky Rosa: Variable change? But he just asked you a simple question.
Ben Campbell: Yeah, which changed everything.
Micky Rosa: Enlighten us.
Ben Campbell: Well, when I was originally asked to pick a door, I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right. But after he opens one of the doors and re-offers me the choice, it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch... So yeah, I'll take door number two and thank you for the extra 33.3%.
Micky Rosa: Exactly. People, remember - if you don't know which door to open, always account for variable change.
Micky Rosa: Now see, most people wouldn't take the switch, out paranoia, fear, emotions. But Mr. Campbell, he kept his emotions aside and let simple math
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